China National Travel Service (601888): Domestic tax-free consumption enters a new era of increase: benchmarking, built-in and scale measurement of duty-free shops in the city
Where does the increase in domestic tax-free consumption come from?
At first glance at overseas consumption rebates, China ‘s overseas tax-free consumption in 2018 was about 180 billion, and its Chinese covered 100 billion markets in Japan and South Korea. Second, when fragrance consumption was upgraded, the fragrance-free sales of fragrance in the Asia-Pacific region accounted for 52%, and fragrance luxuryThe growth rate of product continued to exceed 10%; the outbound tourism of Sanmao continued to penetrate. At present, the domestic outbound penetration and passport ownership rate are about 11%. In the future, outbound tourism will maintain a growth rate of 10-15%, and the unit price of shoppers will remain relatively stable.
Looking at the advantages of duty-free channels, about 37% of Chinese consumers ‘overseas consumption takes place in duty-free shops, while consumption at duty-free shops in Chinese airports only accounts for 9%. Channel advantage transfer scenarios and category optimization accelerate penetration.
Key words for benchmarking Korea’s duty-free industry-Chinese, duty-free shops in the city, fragrance, purchasing.
1,200 trillion in the Korean tax-free market, Chinese account for about 70% (84 billion), Chinese people like to buy fragrance (60%), and the proportion of international products (70%) is far more than Korean 厦门夜网 domestic products.As a part of the tax-exempt volume, South Korea ‘s tax exemption maintained a growth of more than 20% under the circumstances that Sade caused a drop in Chinese passengers in 17 years. At present, the unit price of tax-exempt customers under the joint effect of purchasing is about 6288 yuan / person.
The benchmarking of the openness of China’s duty-free market scene and the completeness of category brands are attractive to consumers. The internal competition of imported products is strictly cracked down by the customs to crack down on purchases. In addition, alternatives rely on internal diversification and openness and scale effects.Release.
Calculating the scale of duty-free shops and airport diversions in the city-At present, China Duty Free has opened shops in Beijing, Xiamen, Qingdao, Dalian and 无锡桑拿网 Shanghai (coming soon), currently only for foreign tourists.
With the city ‘s tax exemption policy open to nationals before departure, Shanghai is expected to reach a scale of 1 billion to 2 billion in the first year, and 4 to 5 billion when mature. In the future, the operating area will be released.Under the scale of 10 billion stores, similar forecast data can also be obtained from the perspective of penetration rate.
From the perspective of the diversion of city stores and airport stores, if the extreme assumption is that Shanghai Airport will meet the minimum guarantee, the tax-free increment will be retained in the city stores with higher profit margins to maximize profits, and the scale of Shanghai’s single stores can beTen billion levels.
At this point, how do you view the future development of China National Tourism Administration?
The domestic outbound and tax-free markets are still in the infiltration stage, and nationals enjoying tax-free policies when they leave the country have become the main tax-free consumer groups.
After the scene of the city’s duty-free shops opened, from the fragmented consumption time of the airport to the upgrading of the volume of commerce and leisure shopping, the combination of duty-free and leisure will fully tap consumer demand for goods at home and abroad.
The need for endogenous consumption upgrades and structural repatriation overseas are important logics that China’s tax-exempt industries have received capital attention, and this logic is gradually being established.
The profit forecast and investment recommendations do not take into account the performance of 19-21E in the case of Haiwai and alternative travel agency business and the increase of duty-free shops in the city42.
6/54/67 million, a growth rate of 40% / 26% / 25%, EPS2.
4 yuan, PE 36/28/23 times, maintain BUY rating.
Risks suggest that the macroeconomic impact on national consumption is restrained; the opening of the city’s tax-free policy is less than expected; the RMB exchange rate continues to depreciate.